4 min read
The Truth About Insurance (Spoiler: Don't)
Insurance looks like a hedge. It's actually a bad side bet on whether the hole card is a ten. Here's the math.
When the dealer shows an ace, you're offered insurance: a side bet of half your wager that pays 2:1 if the dealer has blackjack.
The math
There are 16 ten-value cards out of 52. Insurance breaks even when the probability of a ten in the hole is exactly 1/3. With a fresh shoe it's 16/51 ≈ 31.4% — clearly under 1/3. So insurance has negative EV every single time, unless you know the remaining deck is unusually rich in tens.
But what about 'even money'?
Even money on a player blackjack is just insurance in disguise. Same negative EV. Take the 3:2 payout (when offered) and accept the small chance of a push.
Rule: Never take insurance unless you're counting cards and the count tells you to.